It separates base demand from media.
Some sales would happen anyway, thanks to base drivers like distribution, pricing and the underlying health of your brand. MMM estimates how much, so you can see what your media really added.
How MMM works
Marketing mix modeling, in plain English.
MMM shows what each part of your marketing actually drove, and where your next dollar will work hardest. Here's how it works, and how we turn it into a plan every month.
Where weekly sales come from.
Illustrative sample · not a real client
- Base demand
- Distribution
- Price & promotions
- Media
MMM splits each week's sales into what would have happened anyway and what each driver added.
01 · What MMM is
MMM measures what your media actually drove.
It puts every channel on the same scale.
Instead of each platform grading its own homework, one model compares TV, search, social, retail media and more side by side.
It shows where the next dollar works.
Every channel eventually hits diminishing returns. MMM shows which ones still have room to grow and which are saturated.
Where sales came from.
Illustrative sample · not a real client
Base demand
81%
Media-driven
19%
02 · How it's different
Why not just use platform reporting?
Platform & attribution reports
- Each platform counts its own conversions
- Misses TV, retail and offline sales
- Relies on user-level tracking
Marketing mix modeling
- One independent view across every channel
- Works with retail, DTC and offline sales
- Uses weekly totals, so no user tracking is needed
03 · What you need
You probably have most of the data already.
A model needs a couple of years of weekly history. Typical inputs:
Sales
Weekly sales by retailer, region or channel (e.g. SPINS, Circana, Amazon, your own site).
Media
Weekly spend and delivery by channel and tactic.
Pricing
Average price and price changes over time.
Promotions
Discounts, TPRs, features and displays.
Distribution
Where you're sold: store counts, ACV or points of distribution.
Outside factors
Seasonality, holidays, competitor activity, anything unusual.
04 · How OnTrack works each month
Data in. Model refresh. Reviewed plan. Every month.
- 01
Data in
Your latest sales and media data arrive. We clean, map and check it, and flag anything missing or odd before it reaches the model.
- 02
Model refresh
The model reruns with the newest weeks, so results reflect what's happening now, not last year.
- 03
Reviewed recommendations
The model's optimizer suggests budget changes. We review every one against what the data can really support, then accept, adjust or override it, and say why.
- 04
Monthly report and call
You get a short three-page report: what the data says, what to change and what it's worth, and the tests to run next. We walk you through it.
Illustrative sample · not a real client
| Q4 plan (9 weeks) | Weekly spend | Total leads | Media-driven leads | Likely range | Profit after media |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continue current (search only) | $24.0K | 2,610 | 400 | 60–790 | -$96K |
| Model's recommendation | $20.0K | 2,690 | 720 | 340–1,350 | $36K |
| Final plan (our take) | $20.0K | 2,720 | 650 | 290–1,180 | $15K |
Ranges are wide: direction, not a forecast.
05 · Common questions
Questions marketers ask us.
Ready to see what your media is really doing?
Talk to us and we'll talk through your channels, data and goals.
Talk to us